2011 Cox Plate preview

Mooney Valley's Cox Plate, over 2040m, is regarded as the weight-for-age (WFA) championship of Australian racing. The honour roll includes recent Champion horses such as So You Think (2009 & 2010), Makybe Diva (2005), Northerly (2001 & 2002), Sunline (1999 & 2000), Might and Power (1998), Saintly (1996) and Octagonal (1995).

A capacity field of 14 runners ensures there is plenty of mystery in picking this year's winner. Here's how I see the runners for Saturday's race.

1. Efficient

A former Melbourne Cup Winner that has been plagued by injuries. Did win the 2006 AAMI Vase at this track, but is clearly a Flemington Horse. Recorded solid closing sectionals in the recent Turnbull Stakes at Flemington without threatening. Will need a truly run race for him to figure in the finish. Don't think Moonee Valley will suit him. Tactically, he could take off early at the 1000m like stablemate Zipping has the past two seasons, to inject some true speed into the race and make it a staying test. If that's the case, he's one of three in the field who have won over 2400m and beyond (Lion Tamer and Shamrocker are the others).

2. Descarado

Scratched Thursday morning.

3. Wall Street

New Zealand visitor that has been racing consistently lately without winning. Moderate effort at last start, finishing fourth. Ran disappointingly in this race last year; can't see how things have improved. Has a good jockey but that's the end of it.

4. Glass Harmonium

Will lead from barrier 4 and, if the Turnbull Stakes is any guide, will ensure a truly run 2040 metres here. Has been racing consistently without much success and Moonee Valley should suit his racing pattern. Has a gear change, with pacifiers going on for the first time; it could be the key to victory. One of the chances.

5. Jimmy Choux

Outstanding New Zealander who has won his last two at Group 1 level. 2000 metres is his optimal distance. Has drawn moderately in barrier 10 so could be posted three-deep. Not only the best of the Kiwis here, but a definite danger to the favourite.

6. Sincero

A winner of 11 races from 17 starts who will be better for his recent run at Caulfield (his first race in Melbourne). Seems to hit a flat spot in his race, as evident in the Epsom and Caulfield Stakes. I doubt him at the trip, and that was evident last start. His outsider price is clearly justified. Not for mine.

7. Lion Tamer

Winner of the Underwood two starts ago, and the tempo was not run to suit him last start. The tactics last start were to settle back in the field but he wasn't able to sustain the long run; I think those were experimental tactics and I can't see them doing the same here. Will boot forward from the wide gate or sit midfield. Very strong effort in the Underwood suggests he's a major threat here. The blinkers go back on, which he wore to run second in the 2010 AAMI Vase. Price is about right. Good each-way bet.

8. Playing God

A Western Australia visitor, but hasn't been able to convert his three-year-old form. Has drawn wide again, and I can't see him troubling the place getters. Forget.

9. Rekindled Interest

Winner of two from three at this track, including an impressive Feehan win against Whobegotyou. Tried to race forward in the Memsie Stakes three starts ago, and his trainer stated that he's better ridden off the speed. Barrier 3 won't do him any favours here and I would've preferred him drawing wide. Runs amazing sectionals but needs to wind up into his races, so racing on the inside will prove difficult for him.

10. Shamrocker

She's an AJC Derby winner, but has been racing terribly this campaign. Showed moderate improvement in the Turnbull, but think the trainer has her peaking for the Melbourne Cup. Will start from barrier 1, and I can't see her troubling the placegetters.

11. Pinker Pinker

Is racing very consistently, including one win and two seconds in her last three starts. She has got a good finish, but I fear King's Rose and Secret Admirer have her measure.

12. Secret Admirer

Came up with a withering run in the Epsom down the middle of the track, but was only half a kilogram over the minimum weight in that race. Has not been tried at weight-for-age nor beyond 1600m, but she did run through the line, suggesting she'll get the trip. Has a blistering turn of foot when the tempo suits, but not sure if she'll get that here.

13. King's Rose

Has drawn ideally here in barrier 2 and will take advantage of that gate to settle just off the speed. Her last three starts have consisted of two wins at WFA and a second in a Group 1 Handicap. Peaked on her run last start against King Mufusa. Has a great trainer/jockey combination with Peter Moody and Luke Nolen, and 2000m is her limit distance. Chance.

14. Helmet

A stablemate of outstanding three-year-old sprinter Sepoy, Helmet is quickly growing his own reputation as the outstanding middle distance sprinter for Darley. Burned the candle at both ends in the Caulfield Guineas in a record race time, and found plenty on the line when challenged. Has a massive weight advantage, only carrying 49.5kg here. Will give them something to chase turning for home, and will enhance his reputation if he pulls this one off. Justified favourite amongst moderate WFA horses this season.

15. Avienus

Has been racing consistently lately, including a second to Descarado in the Caulfield Stakes at last start, but the muddled tempo there may have advantaged her. Ran sixth in this race last year against some very good horses (So You Think, Zipping, Whobegotyou, More Joyous). This year's edition isn't as strong, so has an each-way chance. Price justified.

16. Yosei

Scratched.

The Predictions
Hardest to beat: Helmet
Next Best: Lion Tamer/Secret Admirer
Each Way: Efficient