Doncaster Handicap preview

This Saturday's Emirates Doncaster Handicap is run over the famous Randwick metric mile. The 2011 edition features Sydney’s wonder mare More Joyous, who has won 14 of her past 15 starts, plus multiple Group 1 winner Danleigh, reigning Epsom champion Captain Sonador and up-and-coming three-year-old Ilovethiscity.

More Joyous will start as the Doncaster's shortest-priced favourite since Sunline in 1998, but can she be beaten?

Here's how we rate each of the runners' chances.

1) More Joyous (barrier 8) $2.50  – Drawn perfectly, has weight-for-age form and plenty of class on this field. Timed to perfection with four soft kills this autumn, two of them being Group 1s. Rain, hail or shine, she’ll go through anything. Clearly the stand out pick.

2) Danleigh (5) $26 – Disappointing in the George Ryder last start, but did win the Chipping Norton Stakes over 1600m two starts back. Drawn to be ridden closer, but tempo won’t suit. A little bit of rain enhances his chances.

3) Wall Street (13) $41 – Comes to Australia on the back of two good runs in New Zealand, but failed miserably in the Ryder last start. Can you forgive that run? You’d be a brave man to... although he did win the Emirates Mile in November carrying the same weight.

4) Captain Sonador (9) $51 – The reigning Epsom Handicap 1600m winner has been struggling through wet conditions this preparation. Came home steadily last start. My roughie in the race.

5) Dao Dao (18) $26 – Yet to win a Group 1 race in Australia but has a great record at the mile. Chances have been dashed by drawing 18 though.

6) Centennial Park (16) $34 – Tempo was against him in the Ryder, but made up steady ground. Has an outstanding record at Rosehill but this is Randwick, where he’s 0/5. Drawing wide is no help.

7) Love Conquers All (7) $15 – Races to 1600m for the first time in its career. Only beaten by a lip in the Ryder 1500m last start. Will prefer the surface to be rain-affected. Slow tempo will help him get the trip, but it's hard seeing him win a Group 1.

8) Sacred Choice (15) $26 – Won the Myer Classic 1600m on a bog in the Spring, upsetting Typhoon Tracy. Has come back moderately, but last start in the Ranvet 2000m was concerning. If you take her on the Chipping Norton run, she’s a great chance. Hasn’t raced for four weeks. Fresh?

9) Aloha (11) $8.50 – Floated on water in the Coolmore 1500m and came home moderately in the Ryder last start. I thought she was racing like a tired horse by laying out, but has a feather on her back. Can race handy or mid-field, and jockey Glen Boss knows how to win a Doncaster – having done so five times.

10) Ilovethiscity (17) $13 – the three-year-old was a Group 1 winner in the Randwick Guineas 1600m this preparation. Came home steadily in the Ryder, but the wide gate, lack of tempo and the fact he gets back in his races won’t suit. There are better, stronger horses here with the same weight.

11) Triple Elegance (6) $7.50 – Underrated horse who has climbed through the grades strongly and performed outstandingly well in the Ryder, which was its first start in Group 1 company weight-for-age. Drops to 51.5kg and is clearly the “weighted” horse in the race. Yet to win at headquarters, and previous starts may have been flattered running at Rosehill.

12) Palacio De Cristal (6) $51 – Classy mare, but needs completely bone-dry tracks. Not sure she’ll get it here...

13) Pureness (10) $26 – The second Gai Waterhouse runner in the field, carrying 51.5kg and Corey Brown. Great effort after missing the start in the Ajax, sitting three deep. Yet to run in Group 1 company but is the value runner in the race.

14) Bold Glance (3) $61 – Reasonable form north of the border but this is way out of his depth – hence the massive price. No chance.

15) Brilliant Light (14) $101 – Owners obviously have more money than brains. Going like a busted this campaign and should’ve been spelled or sent to Adelaide.

16) Keepin The Dream (1) $101 – In two starts won the Newcastle Newmarket 1400m and then failed miserably at weight-for-age in the Ryder. Has already won his race this campaign. Forget it.

17) Syreon (4) $81 – Another one just making up the numbers.

18) Happy Hippy (2) $61 – Came home nicely in the Coolmore and then again behind More Joyous in the Queen of the Turf 1500m. Has no weight, but a big finish. Chance at place.

Our fearless predictions:
Doncaster Bet – More Joyous
Each-way – Pureness
Roughie – Captain Sonador

Note: All prices shown are indicative only and may not reflect the actual market.