Melbourne Cup: By the Numbers

Not into the long-winded analysis, but keen to ensure there's some method in your Melbourne Cup betting madness?

Well here's our quick by-the-numbers guide to where to lodge your 50 cents each-way.

It's not rocket science, but it is food for thought that's well worth chewing over.

Boys or Girls?

Sorry girls, the Cup is clearly suited to the lads with 133 of the previous 148 winners classed as male - 64 of those horses had their manhood intact, 49 were geldings and 20 colts.

Winning Numbers

Despite Shocking saluting in 2009 the runner with 21 on its saddlecoth, horses bearing that number have only won the Cup twice. Your money is better placed on the 4 or 12 (11 victories each) or the top-weight (9 wins).

Also worth a look are the runner with 8 and 11 on their saddlecloth. Be warned, number 20 has not saluted since 1897 (Gaulus).

For the record, Zipping and Harris Tweed have been give the lucky 4 and 12 this year, while Precedence will wear the dreaded 20.

A Decent Start

If it's the barriers you're more interested in, stay well clear of the doomed runner that draws 18 (that's Master O'Reilly in this year's race). No horse has jumped from barrier 18 and saluted the judges. Instead look for a runner who's drawn a barrier in the low teens. Since the barrier have been in play (from 1924), seven winners have jumped from barrier 11 and six from barrier 14.

If you're into patterns and the like this may or may not interest you. Shocking's win in 2009, from barrier 21, ended the strange barrier sequence that was starting to build. In 2006, winner Delta Blues jumped from barrier 10. In 2007, Efficient went from barrier 9 and in 2008 Viewed started from barrier 8.

Youth or Experience

As with most things in this world that involve a bit of physical, younger is better.

Five-year-old horses are the most successful runners with 43 wins, a nose ahead of the four-year-olds (42). Next come the six-year-olds (28) and the three-year-olds (24), with the seven-year-olds (10) and especially the eight-year-olds (2) mostly struggling to keep up.

Last year's win by Shocking again complicates things as he was the first three-year-old winner since Skipton in 1941.

Colour Theory

It pays to know your colour theory as you'll need to be capable of distinguishing shades of brown.

Bay horses are clearly the most successful cup runners with 65 wins, ahead of the plain brown runners (35) and the chestnuts (34).

Of the others, grey (6 wins) have only as many triumphs as those horses whose brownie mix is undefined (6). The big black horse may look impressive, but it's only won the day twice.

Correct Weight

This one's not as clear cut, with winners spread across the weight spectrum, but if you must, target the 52 to 53 kilo range. Twenty-two winners fall into this weight range.

Of the rest, lighter is probably better - but you knew that.

The Name Game

It's a strange one, but horses with a single word name (83 wins) are more favourable than the two-word names (61), with the three-worders a Hail Mary (5).

Horses whose name starts with T are worth a look with 16 wins, with P, S and M (12 each), then B (11) the next best starting initial.

Odd Spot

If it's all about the potential payout then 16-1* might be the best place to set your limit as the historical numbers suggest your horses' chances start to diminish quickly after this price.

At the short end of the market, a favourite priced at 4-1 (12 wins) or 5-1 (10) is a good sign. The favourite has won the race 35 times, while equal favourites score seven victories.

And, for the record, 10-1 (14 wins) and 8-1 (13) are the most successful starting odds for Melbourne Cup winners.

The last time a 100-1 shot (3 wins) got up was in 1940 when Old Rowley went berserk.

* that's $17 in now-speak.

Domestic Bliss

The international raiders (not counting our friends across the ditch) have only been trying to win the big one Down Under for a short while, in the context of the 148-year history of the race, but three wins in total is not a great return, however you look at it.

Two of those three wins went to Dermott Weld, who may well be back in 2010 with a decent chance in Profound Beauty.

The Main Man

No Melbourne Cup blurb would be complete without giving a nod to the Cups King himself, Bart Cummings.

Guru Bart has trained 12, count them, 12 past Cup winners. Cummings may have missed the Cup win in 2009, but he did bag the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate. He also happens to train the highly regarded So You Think, the most-likely of his 12 nominations.

Form on the board

As racing, like all sports, becomes more of a science, peaking at the right time is a good sign. Of the last 19 winners, 10 won their previous start.

Pedigree

Remember the name Carbine. If it anywhere in the family tree of your runner you're in with a good chance. Carbine's descendants have won more than half of all Melbourne Cups.