Melbourne Cup preview

Ever since Media Puzzle became the second international horse to claim the Melbourne Cup in 2002, Australians have become used to watching overseas-bred horses win their greatest race and this year appears no different. Here's a look at this year's field ahead of the race that stops a nation.

1. Americain (Barrier 15)

Absolutely dominant in the Moonee Valley Cup in his first run in Australia this season, leaving him with an unbeaten record here. He is a powerful horse but he will carry 58 kilos and race four spots wider out than when he started last year, which will prove difficult. Only multiple winners Think Big and Makybe Diva have won carrying this much weight in the past 40 years. If he wins, he will become only the seventh horse to win two Melbourne Cups.

Back if: You believe the race should go to the strongest horse

2. Jukebox Jury (6)

At his last start in the Group 2 Prix Kergorlay at Deauville in France, he thrashed Americain and Dunaden. He will attempt to lead all the way in the Cup, which is extremely difficult and hasn't been done since Might and Power won in 1997. On European form he is the best of the internationals but he is carrying 57 kilos, which isn't ideal for an international raider who hasn't had a start beforehand. Vintage Crop came out and won without running in any other Australian races, but it is difficult to back without having watched it race in Australian conditions.

Back if: You feel you can trust European form

3. Dunaden (13)

Dunaden has typically had the better of Americain when they have raced against each other in Europe. The difference in this race is that Dunaden will carry just 54.5 kilos, a considerable advantage over Americain. Dunaden had a great win in the Geelong Cup, which has shaped as the form race for the Melbourne Cup in recent times.

Back if: You are smart

4. Drunken Sailor (8)

Won the Glorious Stakes in Great Britain this year, but is now on its second tour of duty trying to win the Melbourne Cup and is still doesn't appear quite up to it. Could only manage seventh in the Caulfield Cup, in what increasingly appears to be a weak field this year.

Back if: You feel Luca Cumani is due a win

5. Glass Harmonium (23)

Put in a strong performance to win the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday but there are still two big question marks about this horse. Can he cover the distance? Both trainer Mike Moroney and Saturday's jockey Damien Oliver have their doubts. And can he overcome his nervousness in the barriers? He started poorly in the Cox Plate before performing terribly and was difficult to get into the gate again on Saturday.

Back if: You like betting on greys

6.  Manighar (21)

Oliver claims his runner in this year's Melbourne Cup seems more mature, stronger and better-placed to win this year's race. He finished fourth in the Caulfield Cup but didn't look as though he had a lot left to offer. Still, not without his chances on Tuesday.

Back if: You think Oliver can win a third time and boost flagging ticket sales for The Cup

7. Unusual Suspect (7)

A US Group One winner brought out especially to run in the Cup, he showed plenty in the Caulfield Cup where he finished sixth after being checked and held up for a clear run on the home turn.

Back if: Nash Rawiller loses his VCAT appeal and a last-minute replacement gets a fairytale chance

8. Fox Hunt (19)

Mark Johnston's second runner after Jukebox Jury doesn't have quite the same level of hype, despite winning the German St Leger in September. Like Jukebox Jury, he has been unsighted in Australian conditions, making it difficult to put a line through his form although Johnston claims he is "tailor-made for the Cup".

Back if: You are selecting horses at random

9. Lucas Cranach (11)

Another international it is difficult to get a read on. He came over with solid form in Europe and big things were expected of him in the Caulfield Cup, but he ran fifth with connections citing a sore hoof as the chief problem. If he can produce the same late acceleration at Flemington, he is not without a chance.

Back if: You believe the sore hoof excuse

10. Mourayan (14)

The Lloyd Williams-owned horse showed plenty in its second-placed workout in the Mackinnon on Saturday and appeared to have enough left in the tank for the longer journey on Tuesday. Stewards did report that it looked as though he pulled up mildly lame after the race though, which could be a concern.

Back if: You don't mind getting your money back if your horse is scratched

11. Precedence (2)

Mug punters will tell you if Bart Cummings has two horses in the Melbourne Cup, then always get on the less fancied of the two. That fits Precedence down to the ground this year after a shocking run in the Mackinnon Stakes that leaves him well behind Bart's other horse, Illo. Precedence finished eighth in the Cup last year and is not without a chance of improving.

Back if: You believe the aforementioned Cummings theory

12. Red Cadeaux (16)

Could this horse be the next Vintage Crop? Red Cadeaux won the Curragh Cup in June, just like the great Irish horse and is also attempting to win the Cup without racing on Australian soil. Red Cadeaux finished fifth in the Prix Kergorlay at Deauville in August behind Jukebox Jury, but crucially ahead of Americain and Dunaden. He was again beaten by Jukebox Jury in the Irish St Leger, but this time he was only one length behind. Carrying just 53.5 kilos, he has to be in with a shot. Still a slight query over the two miles.

Back if: You think he can go the distance

13. Hawk Island (18)

Another international horse imported purely for the fact he would be guaranteed a run in the Cup. Finishing 13th in the Caulfield Cup says all you need to know about this horse's chances in the big one.

Back if: It rains and rains heavily all day

14. Illo (1)

Cummings' German import has only had the one run on Australian soil and finished third behind Americain in the Moonee Valley Cup. That suggests he has to be in with a shot this year and even non-punters know you always pay attention to Cummings' horses when it comes to the first Tuesday in November.

Back if: You think Bart can win his 13th Cup

15. Lost in the Moment (3)

Could this be the year a Godolphin horse wins the Melbourne Cup? Perhaps but Modun probably looks the more likely of the stable's two runners this year, though neither have raced in Australia which makes gauging their form difficult.

Back if: You think an English jockey can win the Cup

16. Modun (5)

The second horse from the Godolphin stable but the more highly-rated of the two. Modun is a giant and powerful horse, which should hold him in good stead come Tuesday. Godolphin purchased the horse after it won the September Stakes at Kempton last month, which suggests they are still coming to terms with what the horse can achieve, but jockey Kerrin McEvoy should get the most out of him fairly quickly.

Back if: You think Godolphin is due a Melbourne Cup win

17. At First Sight (10)

Probably the best of Lloyd Williams' three runners this year, At First Sight finished second in the Bendigo Cup after storming home from the rear of the field. He achieved that feat with 58kg on his back, but will carry just 52.5kg in the Cup, which is why he has such a good shot at winning.

Back if: You are having an each-way bet

18. Moyenne Corniche (17)

Won England's biggest handicap, the Ebor in York this year and is capable of causing an upset. Would have helped punters get a read on his form if trainer Brian Ellison hadn't scratched it from the Lexus Stakes on Saturday, but it was done to keep him fresh for the Cup, which seems to be a clever move now he has made the field.

Back if: You like to bet at long odds

19. Saptapadi (22)

The second Ellison runner in this year's Cup and the luckiest horse in the race. Only $944 separated Bauer and Saptapadi in prizemoney, which got the runner into the race over the more-fancied Cumani horse. You are probably still better off putting your money on Bauer.

Back if: You are a Hindu

20. Shamrocker (20)

Won the AJC Oaks in the autumn, but her spring form has been dismal. This was highlighted when she finished 12th of 14 in the Cox Plate. Avoid.

Back if: You have rocks in your head

21. The Verminator (4)

Won the AJC Metropolitan at Randwick but then finished 11th of 12 in the Mackinnon Stakes on Saturday. Inconsistency doesn't win you many Melbourne Cups.

Back if: You have a rodent problem or issues with someone called Sarah Connor

22. Tullamore (12)

Has done everything except win when it mattered this preparation. He finished third in the Caulfield Cup and was second behind Americain in the Moonee Valley Cup. If you follow the progression of Cups runs that means he should finish first on Tuesday.

Back if: You think it is Gai Waterhouse's time

23. Niwot (9)

Twice this century the Lexus Stakes winner has gone on to win the Melbourne Cup with Shocking the most recent in 2009. The Hawkes stable also came close to achieving the feat last year when Maluckyday finished second behind Americain.

Back if: You believe in karma and think the Hawkes stable deserve something after a thrilling run last year

24. Older Than Time (20)

The only Australian-bred horse in the race but don't expect her to do us proud. She did finish second in the Sydney Cup but has placed only once in her spring preparation and was an appalling 11th in the Lexus Stakes on Saturday.

Back if: Patriotism matters more to you than money

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of BigPond Sport.

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