Preview: Emirates Stakes

Saturday's $1 million Emirates Stakes is the last Group 1 race of the spring, run on the last day of the Flemington carnival. We look at the chances of the field.

Black Piranha (Barrier 6)

Pros: A back-to-back Stradbroke winner, this consistent galloper has been finishing his races off nicely but has been severely penalised with heavy weights and today is no different. Although still carrying the top weight, the opposition's class is significantly lower and he's drawn a nice gate. Dead or slow conditions won't hurt him. Finished off his Salinger run nicely as a warm-up to this. The big open Flemington straight will help him run on, but needs the speed on.

Cons: Brazilian Pulse and Curtana are the only horses who have performed well after running on Derby Day's heavy track. Although finished off the race nicely, not sure how much it took it out of him.

Sniper's Bullet (15)

Pros: Multiple Group 1 winner who likes to have his races spaced out. Excellent run and still baffles you how he missed the head bob against Rothera at Caulfield. Was subject to a late betting plunge in that race (21s into 15s), so the money trail suggests he is a show for this.

Cons: A change of stables this campaign has seen improvements in him, but his wide gate is a concern. The apparent lack of speed does negate the wide gate, but he's not as young as he used to be, so may use up a bit of petrol to come across. Appears over the odds.

Wall Street (12)

Pros: A New Zealander who came across to Australia with back-to-back Group 1 victories but wasn't sighted in the Cox Plate. Found a lot of trouble throughout the run, and finished tailed off. Handles all type of conditions.

Cons: NZ form doesn't always translate.

Captain Sonador (4)

Pros: 2010 Epsom Handicap winner over the same distance. Carried a paltry 52kg that day; today goes up 3kg on that effort. Ran in the Cox Plate after the jockey advised connections that this year's running was a hot field with superstar So You Think engaged, along with Whobegotyou and More Joyous. Definitely a chance back to this grade and should find a nice position from barrier four.

Cons: The Cox Plate run was very ordinary and you query how much that race took out of him. Also query if this race is an afterthought

Sound Journey (5)

Pros: Winner of the Waterford Crystal Mile on Cox Plate Day over the same distance. Came late with a withering burst down the middle of the track, but he does have an impressive record at the Valley. Kavanagh / Rodd combination here. Wants the track no worse than dead to be effective.

Cons: Although he won the Crystal Mile, he was only running down Trader, who is suspect at the mile, so I query the form.

Albert the Fat (18)

Has failed to impress since changing stables to Messara. Based upon recent form and the wide barrier, I can't see him placing.

Dao Dao (19)

The stable has kept him wrapped in cotton wool trying to avoid heavy tracks, but had no choice but run him on Derby Day for race fitness. A class galloper who loves the mile, but hasn't impressed this campaign. The lack of speed will ensure he goes forward and could be in the finish. His jockey is on fire, having ridden the Oaks winner. He is a chance

Trusting (17)

This horse has been flogged, running in his third race in consecutive weeks. Missed the start in the Cox Plate and finished second last. Ran in the McKinnon and failed to run on. Drops 3.5kg and in class, but I think they've run him into the ground. Gate not a concern, as he gets back in his races.

Drumbeats (11)

Yet to break through in Group 1 company, but trainer has a big opinion of him. Horse has been set for this race all campaign and ran on strongly from last in the Crystal Mile. Drops 3kg from his last run and has drawn a nice gate. Massive chance. He'll want the track to be no worse than dead; preferably good.

Luen Yat Forever (7)

Very good effort first time in Australia in the Toorak Handicap, but terrible run in the Cox Plate, finishing last. Drops 5.5kg from last run and class. Drawn well and could be the smoky of the race. However, his run was very ordinary in the Cox Plate. Does that dent his confidence?

Rothera (1)

Trained by a 19 year old Queenslander who surprised all by winning at Caulfield in the Moonga Stakes. Loves the wet tracks, and excels over the mile. Just nabbed Sniper's Bullet on the line last start. However, he has drawn barrier 1, so not sure he'll have to gate speed to maintain position. The rail is starting to chop up, so I'd imagine they'll be coming down the centre. Not a good gate to draw for this horse.

Chasm (9)

Has a powerful finish if he gets the speed on. Not sure that's going to happen today. Handles all conditions, and finished off late well on Derby Day. Will be swooping down the centre of the track late. Danger.

Gold Salute (3)

Has been very disappointing this campaign. Not a chance.

Palacio de Cristal (14)

Has a great record at the mile, but doesn't want a drop of rain on the tracks. Drawn 14, but generally gets back in her races. Forget her last start; she shouldn't have run on that bog. Based upon two starts ago, she's the winner if the track gets back to good. Carrying a feather with 52.5kg on her back.

Snow Alert (16)

Good galloper without being outstanding. Was checked at a vital stage in the Crystal Mile. Not sure where he'll settle from the barrier.

Allez Wonder (13)

Amazingly enough, she won the '09 Toorak but has done nothing since. Doesn't like wet track either and I can't see any more improvement in her here.

Gathering (8) - 1st emergency

If he gets a start, he'll ensure there's speed in the race. Could provide the pacemaker for stablemate Trusting, but we don't do that in Australia... or do we?

Demerit (10) - 2nd emergency

Has been finishing off his races nicely, but keeps finding the wet tracks. Prefer him on top of the ground, and if he starts, he'll be a massive danger.

We're Gonna Rock (20) - 3rd emergency

Came with a powerful finish and unlucky not to win the Toorak behind More Joyous. Dropped back to 1400m last start, but the heavy track may have dulled his run. Not sure how much that took out of him.

Trader (2) - 4th emergency

Very good galloper, but not sure he runs the mile out.

Summary

With an apparent lack of speed, Sniper's Bullet should come across from 15, with Wall Street and Snow Alert taking up the running. The problem with this race is the tempo and the uncertainty of track conditions. One thing for sure, they'll all be coming off the fence and running down the middle. The long straight will ensure all runners get their chance to run on, but race tempo is the major query!

Top pick - Sniper's Bullet

Next best - Drumbeats

Danger - Palacio de Cristal (if track is upgraded to good)

Roughie - Gathering if he gets a start

The views in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of BigPond Sport.