Rain man: Cracking the preliminary code

THE AFL has a fantastic finals system, and there’s no question it ensures the very best sides face off in the competition’s ultimate game. The problem for four finalists every year is it can rarely be broken.

In eight of the 10 completed seasons under the current finals format, the top four sides at the end of the home-and-away season have been the same four sides facing off on preliminary final weekend. Collingwood was an exception in 2007, displacing West Coast, while the Hawks replaced Port Adelaide in 2001.  

So what are the Swans, Fremantle, Hawthorn and Carlton doing over the next week or two, apart from obligingly offering their superiors a couple of warm-up runs before the prelims?

Not a lot more than that, the numbers would suggest, but there’s every chance 2010 will be one of those odd years where a lesser team sneaks through to the final four.

The Western Bulldogs, preliminary finalists the last two years, have been crippled by injuries to key players – as West Coast were in 2007 – and the door has opened for one side to take their place.

The Swans, Hawks and Fremantle all enter September with reasonably healthy lists and on the back of wins, with Sydney and Fremantle enjoying the added benefit of a home final in week one. Carlton enjoyed a strong last quarter in round 22.

So which of these sides can turn the tide on recent history?

A quick look back at the AFL’s previous finals format, the McIntyre system, points to better days for the bottom half of the eight, particularly the sixth placed side.     

The McIntyre system held sway from 1994-99, with Melbourne (1994), North Melbourne (1995 and 1997), Essendon (1996), Adelaide (1998) and Carlton (1999) all progressing from the bottom half of the eight to play off in preliminary finals. Perhaps one reason why it was scrapped.

Three of those six sides came from sixth place, but, sadly for Fremantle supporters, picking this year’s potential smokey has more to do which side of the draw it is on.

The winner of Sydney v Carlton will, assuming Collingwood gets the job done in week one of the finals, face the Bulldogs for a place in the preliminary finals.

Hawthorn and Fremantle can plot all they like to knock off one of Geelong or St Kilda in an elimination final. But all signs point to a preliminary final finish for the Swans who, strangely, knocked the Bulldogs off in round 21.